Determinants of local population growth and economic development in France between 1990 and 2006

This paper analyzes local population and employment growth drivers for French data aggregated at a local level for the 1990-2006, 1990-1999, 1999-2006 periods. A simultaneous equation system, linking changes in local population and employment, is estimated. Jobs are split between export (manufacturing) and personal service sectors. The main findings are that ``people follow jobs'' and simultaneously that ``jobs follow people''. However, the population only follows ``export'' jobs and this effect is strengthening between the first and the second period. Whereas the ``jobs follow people'' assertion is true whatever the period for the ``residential'' sector, it is observed for the 1990-1999 period only for the export sector and this relation becomes insignificant for the period 1999-2006. While it is difficult to know which effect is dominant over the first period, the results lead to a dominant impact of ``people follow (export) jobs'' in the most recent period.