Incidence and Patterns of Late Recurrences in Rectal Cancer Patients

Long-term recurrences of rectal cancer raised questions about the possible benefit of prolonging the recommended active 5-year clinical and endoscopic surveillance. The aim of this study was to determine for the first time, incidence and patterns of late 10-year recurrence after curative resection of rectal cancer. The study included 1,222 patients with rectal cancer resected for cure between 1985 and 2000 from those registered in two French population-based digestive cancer registries. Information about local recurrences and distant metastases at 10 years was retrospectively and actively collected up to January 1, 2011. Although the overall 5-year cumulated rate was 39.5 %, the 10-year cumulated rate was 44.1 % (25.6 % for local recurrence and 29.9 % for distant metastases). In multivariate analyses, TNM stage was associated with a higher risk of local recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] stage III vs. stage I = 3.98 [95 % confidence interval, 2.66-5.94]) and of distant metastasis (HR = 3.60 [2.65-4.91]). Preoperative radiotherapy decreased the risk of local recurrence (HR = 0.43 [0.28-0.66]), but not the risk of metastasis. Patients diagnosed between 1995 and 2000 were less prone to develop long-term metastasis than those diagnosed between 1985 and 1989 (HR = 0.66 [0.49-0.88]). Among patients without recurrence 5 years after diagnosis, one patient in 13 developed a recurrence between 5 and 10 years. Late recurrences do exist. A personalised surveillance could be extended until 10 years according to the characteristics of primary tumour and the patient.