The career paths of agricultural workers: What is the impact of temporary contracts?

Agriculture, more than any other sector, is a provider of temporary jobs. The main aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of the temporary contract in agriculture on the probability of remaining employed in this sector. There is used a discrete-time competing risks duration model with two sub-samples, consisting of seasonal contracts and fixed-term contracts. The results show that while the probability of a worker finding a job increases with the number of temporary jobs already amassed in his or her career, this probability decreases with the number of interruptions in employment. There is also shown the effect of time dependence on the transition probabilities. Whether the temporary contract is seasonal or not, the risks of exiting towards non-employment are greatest for the shortest contracts, but the prospects for finding a job do improve thereafter. In the specific case of the fixed-term contract, the chances of converting this to a permanent contract are greater at the legal limit. Finally, the most highly qualified workers are those who leave the agricultural sector. Nevertheless, the risks of exiting are relatively low: agricultural jobs require a specific capital which is difficult to transfer to other sectors.